Dwindling Fortunes of Russia and Ukraine:
A War of Attrition and Shifting American Support
As the Russia-Ukraine conflict enters its fourth year in 2025, both nations face significant economic challenges, with the scales tipping slightly in Ukraine’s favor despite recent setbacks. Meanwhile, American public opinion on supporting Ukraine continues to evolve, adding another layer of complexity to the situation.
Russia’s economy has been hit hard by prolonged international sanctions and the costs of sustaining the war effort:
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The ruble has lost more than half its value against major currencies.
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Oil exports, a crucial revenue source, have dropped to $64.40 per barrel.
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Inflation is rising, with President Putin acknowledging the economy is “overheating”.
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Record defense spending has led to cuts in other essential services, including scientific research.
These factors point to a potential recession in 2025, with no clear strategy from the Kremlin to address these financial woes.
While Ukraine’s economy has shown remarkable resilience, it faces its own set of challenges:
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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised Ukraine’s 2025 growth forecast down to 3.5% from 4.7%.
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Inflation reached 12% in December 2024, driven by rising electricity costs, utility price hikes, and currency depreciation.
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The 2025 budget deficit is projected at 19.4% of GDP, requiring $38.4 billion in external financing.
Despite these hurdles, Ukraine’s economy grew by 3% in 2024, demonstrating its ability to adapt to wartime conditions.
While both nations are struggling, Ukraine appears to have a slight advantage:
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International Support: Ukraine continues to receive significant financial and military aid from Western allies, bolstering its economy and defense capabilities.
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Economic Adaptability: Ukraine’s economy has shown resilience, with functioning businesses and a Black Sea trade corridor supporting growth.
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Russian Sanctions Impact: The full effect of international sanctions on Russia is finally materializing, weakening its economic foundation.
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Military Momentum: While not conclusive, recent reports suggest Ukraine has made some territorial gains, indicating a potential shift in military dynamics.
The recent suspension of US foreign aid administered by the Department of State and USAID poses a significant challenge for Ukraine. While military aid remains unaffected, the freeze impacts crucial development projects and infrastructure reconstruction efforts.
This situation is further complicated by shifting American public opinion:
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A February 2025 Pew Research Center survey found that 30% of American adults believe the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, up from 27% in November 2024.
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There’s a significant partisan divide: 47% of Republicans say the U.S. is giving Ukraine too much support, compared to only 14% of Democrats.
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Regarding national security, 39% of Americans believe supporting Ukraine helps U.S. national security, while 31% think it hurts.
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A Gallup poll indicates that Americans are now split over whether Ukraine should make concessions to promote a faster end to the war, a shift from prior readings.
These polls reflect a complex and evolving American perspective on the Ukraine conflict, with partisan affiliations playing a significant role in shaping opinions.
The current aid structure highlights areas where the US deal could have been improved:
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Longer-term Commitment: A more extended, guaranteed aid package could have provided Ukraine with greater economic stability and planning certainty.
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Diversified Funding Channels: Relying less on USAID and more on direct government-to-government assistance could have insulated Ukraine from administrative changes in US agencies.
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Focus on Self-Sufficiency: More emphasis on projects that boost Ukraine’s economic independence, such as energy infrastructure, could have reduced long-term reliance on foreign aid.
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Flexible Allocation: A more adaptable aid structure could have allowed for quicker reallocation of funds in response to changing war dynamics and economic needs.
As the conflict continues, the international community watches closely to see if these economic pressures will force a change in Russia’s stance or if Ukraine can maintain its resilience in the face of ongoing challenges. The IMF’s latest forecast suggests the war could end by late 2025 or mid-2026, but the economic repercussions for both nations will likely persist well beyond the cessation of hostilities. The evolving American public opinion adds another layer of uncertainty to the future of U.S. support for Ukraine, potentially influencing the conflict’s trajectory and outcome.
